Steven Johnson on Farsighted Decisions: Master the Art of High-Stakes Choices

Do you believe you're skilled at making major life decisions? Science historian Steven Johnson, author of Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most, argues most of us aren't as good as we think. Our typical decision-making processes are often too narrow, relying on outdated methods like a simple pros and cons list, which hasn't fundamentally changed in 200-300 years. Complex decisions – those with long-lasting impacts and multiple, often conflicting, variables – demand a more sophisticated approach.

Drawing on powerful insights from behavioural psychology, neuroscience, military strategy, and management theory, this course will equip you with a full-spectrum approach to tackling your most important choices. Whether you're contemplating a career change, moving to a new city, or launching a new product, you'll gain practical strategies to make smarter, more farsighted decisions.

What You Will Master:

• The Mapping Phase: Generate Other Options
  • Discover why most people get stuck on a single "whether or not" choice, missing out on superior alternatives.
  • Learn to actively generate other options and ask "which one?" instead. Paul Nutt's groundbreaking research reveals that decision-makers who explore multiple paths are significantly happier with their outcomes.
  • Understand the immense power of diversity in decision-making. Assemble a diverse team – encompassing ethnic, gender, professional, intellectual, and generational perspectives – to unlock more creative and nuanced solutions, as social scientist Scott E. Page demonstrates with "diversity trumps ability".
• The Predicting Phase: Ditch the Single-Focus Approach
  • Confront the human tendency to be terrible at predicting the future, especially when many variables are involved. Philip Tetlock's study on experts reveals that fame often correlates with poor predictive power.
  • Embrace the qualities of "super-forecasters": an eclectic set of interests and high openness to experience (curiosity), enabling them to avoid single, narrow interpretations.
  • Implement powerful storytelling techniques to imagine multiple outcomes:
    • Scenario Planning: Create three narratives – one where things get better, one worse, and one "weird" – to explore the full spectrum of possibilities.
    • Premortems: Conduct a pre-mortem exercise by imagining your decision is a catastrophic failure in five years and then telling the story of how that happened. This technique, developed by psychologist Gary Klein, creatively identifies potential flaws and avoids confirmation bias.

Why This Course Matters: By supplementing your intuition with these scientifically-backed prompts and hacks, you will enhance your ability to see the full complexity and downstream consequences of your choices. You'll build the confidence to navigate ambiguity, overcome challenges, and consistently make smarter choices that shape a better future for yourself and your organisation.

Who Should Enrol: This course is indispensable for leaders, managers, entrepreneurs, and anyone facing significant personal or professional decisions who wants to improve their strategic thinking and decision-making capabilities.

Enrol now and transform how you make the decisions that matter the most!